After a sudden resumption of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz following a US-Iran agreement, there are concerns about a potential oversupply of crude oil in global markets. The reopening of the strait, which handles one-fifth of global oil supply, has pushed down prices, with Brent futures and US West Texas Intermediate crude falling by over 1% on Thursday. However, this optimistic outlook is contingent upon Chinese oil imports remaining low and the fragile truce between the US and Iran holding firm. Morgan Stanley warns of a glut risk, but Professor Mohammad Reza Farzanegan of the Center for Near and Middle Eastern Studies cautions against treating this forecast as settled, as both assumptions remain fragile. China has reduced its imports due to high prices, turning instead to commercial stockpiles and diversifying its sources to Russia, Kazakhstan, Brazil, Indonesia, and Venezuela. Meanwhile, Iran's oil exports are picking up again as US sanctions are temporarily lifted, with over 20 million barrels of Iranian crude ready to sail for at least seven days. The overall estimated volume of Iran's oil loaded onto ships since the US sanctions waiver has increased significantly. Additionally, rising oil production from the Americas (US, Canada, Brazil, and Argentina) could further add to the potential glut in global oil markets.